N 5 (177) 2021. P. 48–53

THE EPIDEMIOLOGY OF HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE COST AND CAPACITY SHOCKS

Rodney P Jones

Department of Population Analysis, Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting, Oxfordshire, UK

DOI 10.54229/2226-2008-2021-5-9

The aim. The financial and capacity pressures experienced by hospitals and social care organisations are far higher than has been realized. End-of-life is a time of high utilization of acute and social care.

Materials and methods. The absolute number of deaths (and its year-to-year variation) then acts to drive the marginal pressures in both capacity and costs for these organisations. Higher weighted population density is associated with higher year-to-year volatility in deaths, hospital admissions and sickness absence, which seems to work via a multitude of (local) infectious outbreaks from the >2,000 known species of human pathogens.

Results. The funding formulae used to distribute money to area health boards and social care organisations around the world do not generally contain any recognition for the role of the absolute number of deaths in the costs incurred by such organisations. A far more nuanced approach is required by governments around the world to equalising these pressures which are beyond the control of the organisations involved in delivering health and social care.

Key words: hospital bed numbers, end-of-life, demographic forecasting, health and social care, costs.

 

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