Background. The topicality of bronchial asthma in children is defined by its growing global prevalence, inclination to severe course, medico-social burden etc.
Aim of this research was to improve the efficacy of basic therapy of atopic bronchial asthma with pollen sensibilization in children by prognosis of exacerbation with taking into account of child’s phenotype and aeropalinological monitoring data.
Methods. Forty-six children 3–18 years old with intermittent (36) and mild persistent (10) forms of bronchial asthma and sensibilization to pollen (proved by skin allergic prick test) have been studied with standard methods. Aeropallinological investigation has been conducted by volumetric method, pollen identification — using specialized data bases. The incremental discriminant analysis was applied to build the prognostic models.
Results. The logico-statistical analysis of aeropallinological, anthropodemographic, clinico-anamnestic, allergological parameters allowed to reveal the risk factors for bronchial asthma exacerbation, develop mathematical model and to calculate the prognostic index as a discriminant function. Further approvement of the model has showed its reliability and improvement of exacerbation prognosis by 15%.
Conclusion. The proposed discriminant model for prognosis of course of atopic bronchial asthma with pollen sensibilization in children allows to improve an efficacy of forecast comparing with standard control level estimation and to objectivize an administration of basic therapy, prevent exacerbation.