For simulation of prognosis of optimal development of primary link of health care in the Odessa region, alternative ways of development of different types of the system of medical care to the population (SMCP) were studied, as well as the matrix was used, which was completed by five possible variants of SMCP and nine criteria of their estimation.
The results of mathematical calculations prove that according to examined criteria-signs an optimum decision is a variant of organization of primary medical care by the example of home medicine, number values of which after the weighed and total criteria and pair importance of criteria are low.